Panasonic/ Tesla divorce coming soon?

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by David Green, Oct 9, 2019.

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  1. David Green

    David Green Well-Known Member

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  3. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    This is an interesting subject, if we can discuss it in a neutral and unbiased manner, ignoring the attempt by "David Green" to force the subject into his "all Tesla news must be interpreted as negatively as possible" straightjacket of an extreme serial Tesla basher.

    Panasonic is not happy because, at least at last report, they had not made any net profit on their huge investment -- hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars? -- invested in Gigafactory 1 (Gf1). I wouldn't be happy either!

    Tesla isn't happy because, despite investing billions of its own money in the factory, Panasonic still isn't supplying as many cells as Tesla needs.

    My thinking in the past was that both companies need each other too much for a divorce, and that they would have to patch things up. But with no new construction at Gf1, plus Tesla's decision to make the Model Y at Fremont rather than Gf1, plus Tesla recently acquiring a small battery manufacturing company, it is starting to look more and more like Panasonic and Tesla are parting ways.

    If so, what will happen with cell production at Gf1? It would be least disruptive to Tesla to simply buy out Panasonic, and take over cell manufacturing operations. I don't see Tesla abandoning Gf1; that would essentially kill off production of the Model 3 outside China, and would halt plans for production of the Model Y until Tesla could line up another battery supplier that could give them the volume they're currently getting at Gf1. That volume may not be sufficient for their needs, but it's still a much higher volume than any other single battery cell manufacturer is producing!

    Ideally, Tesla should buy out Panasonic's entire li-ion cell manufacturing division -- lock, stock, and intellectual property. But Tesla is spending so much money on other expansions, such as building the Shanghai Gigafactory, and continually increasing production at Fremont, that I question they have the money for such a major purchase. Even Tesla doesn't have unlimited ability to borrow money.

    Presumably we'll have a better idea of Tesla's near-future plans (plans for the next 5 years or so) for battery cell supply after they do their upcoming Battery Investor Relations presentation.
     
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2019

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