Model 3 production ramping up

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Rex B, Jan 3, 2018.

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  1. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    Congrats! Very exciting. I look forward to hearing your initial impressions!

    In other news... non owners are finally able to access the configurator! Some are receiving invitations but some aren’t. I imagine it is based on when you reserved.

    Of course, only the LR version with upgrades is currently available still.

    Also: My wife just today funded her first Model 3 loan at work! So some lucky person in the Dallas area is getting their Model 3 soon. We are jealous lol
     
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  3. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    So, the priority that Tesla is assigning to the various factors affecting when you can expect to actually be able to get a Model 3, appears to be becoming more clear. As I see it, it's:

    1. Most and/or most expensive options

    2. Current/previous Tesla car owners

    3. When the reservation was made (earliest first)

    4. Proximity to the Fremont auto assembly plant

    We have started seeing complaints from people about what they're describing as "line-jumping" by owners of other Tesla cars, including people who, reportedly, recently bought a used Model S and were offered the opportunity to convert their TM3 reservation to an order even though they had signed up long after first-day non-Tesla owner reservation holders.

    Tesla could have avoided such charges of "unfairness" if they had made it clear from the start what priority they were assigning to the various factors affecting the place in line. But perhaps Tesla didn't want to paint itself into a corner by specifying the priority of factors.
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  4. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    From the latest (February 2018) InsideEVs Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard article:

    For February, we must assume that most of the remainder of the Model 3s manufactured in January made their way into owners’ driveways. Added to this, we gather that some early February production was delivered prior to the 28th of the month. We should also point out that an anonymous source with close ties to Model 3 production made us aware that the line has been down for as much as a week at a time over the course of the last month or so due to timing issues with the robots.

    This puts our February Model 3 delivery estimate at 2,485.
    This is a 33% increase over January's delivery estimate of 1875.
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  5. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I've seen the argument made in comments, but this is the first time I've ever seen an entire well-researched article making the Tesla apologist argument that Model 3 production is actually not delayed, but rather it's going according to the original schedule, before Elon accelerated that.

    From CleanTechnia: "Is Tesla Model 3 Actually On Original Schedule?"

    Definitely written from the unabashed apologist viewpoint. It's fair to say that I sometimes make Tesla apologist arguments, but I also take Tesla to task when I think they deserve it. This writer has a much stronger pro-Tesla bias than I do!
     
  6. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    Yeah, anything written by Zachary of Cleantechnica, Fred of Electrek, or anyone at Evannex is going to have a Bias towards Tesla that is unnaturally optimistic.

    I understand what Zach is trying to say, but the article loses a lot of respectability with lines such as:

    "When considering who is more accurate with timelines, then, perhaps it’s time to give Elon a little more props and a little less sass."

    "And, again, if you look at our 2014 poll, even bullish Tesla fans largely didn’t expect Tesla to get the Model 3 into production in 2017. (Context, Sherlock, context.)"

    "For sure, it was Tesla’s mistake that in the past year it has been estimating a quicker ramp up than reality delivered. For sure, it’s a bit upsetting and it puts into question Tesla’s current projections. But if you step back and put everything into perspective, dang, Elon nailed it."

    Especially that last one. He 'nailed' it? By making a rough estimation of 2017 4 years ago? You would think that the closer we got to production, the more accurate the prediction would have been haha.

    I do not mind that they are optimists. :) But I think it kind of hurts their readers. A lot of people set plans in motion, extended car leases, set money aside, because they were assured by members of the media they trust that everything was on track.

    I remember a poll result from Electrek that asked How many Model 3 Tesla will produce in 2017?

    https://electrek.co/2017/02/27/tesla-model-3-perfect-execution-production-2017/

    58% of 10,004 readers thought that Tesla would produce at least 50k units... in 2017! That's kind of funny to look back on now, since I thought I was pessimistic at the time of thinking in the mid-teens to low 20,000 units.

    If their readers were accurately informed, they could have gone out to get a volt, or a leaf, or i3 or used Model S. They could have gotten rid of their ICE and started driving EV already while waiting for their Model 3.

    But considering these authors generally negative attitude towards PHEVs and BEV competitors like the Bolt, they clearly don't want people to drive EVs... just to drive Teslas. :( And they rarely extend the same optimistic courtesy to BMW, Nissan or GM that they do to Tesla.
     
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  8. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    I've been wondering why some people have been getting their Model 3s in 1-2 weeks while others are still waiting for deliveries on cars placed in mid-January.

    So, from what I have gathered from buyers providing their VINs, Tesla seems to be producing Model 3s in batches of colors and whether or not a buyer opts for the Aero wheel covers.

    So, if you've received your invitation and are not too picky about your color choices and you need your car quickly... try to keep track of what the current batch of colors are. :) Then place an order for either the current batch or one of the next two colors in line for production.

    According to readers at TMC the order is currently:

    White
    Black
    Midnight Silver
    Silver
    Red
    Blue

    If you want to config today (3/3/2018) ordering a black or midnight silver Model 3 might be your best bet to get your car quickly. It also helps if you live right near Fremont lol.

    Of course this all may change in a few weeks as they see what the most popular options are and they adjust production accordingly.
     
  9. Pushmi-Pullyu

    Pushmi-Pullyu Well-Known Member

    I, also, thought I was pretty safe with what I thought was a lowball estimate of 20k or 25k.

    But now, with the benefit of hindsight, looks like both of us were rather naive, weren't we? :)
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  10. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    It was a simpler time! LOL :rolleyes: Ah to be one year younger again!
     
  11. jim

    jim Active Member

    -So far I've been waiting 45 days since we did the CONFIG, Still not pick up date and time. At least I see the model 3 is on the top of the list for the Inside EVs sales by month listing. That's even with sales numbers from plugin hybrids. I predict Tesla will be the top in sales for at least 5 years. I just hope mine comes this week!
     
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  13. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    45 days is on the long end of wait times for sure. :eek: I assume the delay is on Tesla's side not yours right? If it was me, as soon as they told me it was ready, I'd be on my way there lol.

    At least you got a VIN. There are people who config'd in mid-January who don't even have that yet! Usually deliveries are completed within 2 weeks or so of the VIN assignment. So it has to be coming soon!

    What color / wheel combination did you go with? I hope not White or Red with Aero wheels. Lots of people with those combinations have been waiting quite a while for some reason! o_O
     
  14. jim

    jim Active Member

    18 inch aero wheels and,White for the,car.
    My friend did his,same configuration but choose RED and got it in 20 days.
     
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  15. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    He probably ordered a Red at just the right time! We're only just now seeing how the paint / wheel combinations effects the ordering.

    Yikes! Not white with Aero! Is it too late to change your color / wheels?? :p People are waiting quite a while for their White Aero Model 3's. And currently Reds are taking a while also.

    A very oddly specific delay... either those are the most popular colors so they can't keep up, or those are the least popular colors so they reduced production.

    But again, you've got a VIN so you're in the final stretch! Have you tried contacting your Tesla sales rep to see what the delay might be?
     
  16. jim

    jim Active Member


    I just picked mine up Thursday of this week. 3-8-2018. Looks and runs perfect. Drove about 800 miles home with no problems or issues. Very efficient even at 80 mph on the highway. Can easily hit over 100 passing as my friend did on the way home. The new white is really a nice deep pearl white with sparkle flakes in it and looks great.
     
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  17. Josh Bryant

    Josh Bryant Member

    Congrats!

    Thanks for the quick impressions.

    Jealousy over here, I was originally expecting to have my non-owner Day 1 reservation by now.

    I have a new baby coming next month, so deferring until summer is the plan now. Once we have our head above water (and sleeping again). Maybe white interior will be the reward for our longer wait.

    Enjoy the car.

     
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  18. jim

    jim Active Member

    We have a 2nd 3 on order for my wife. She is getting the white Vegan interior and no glass roof so it may not be available until December 2018 or so. It's worth the wait.
     
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  19. Congratulations! Feel free to start a new thread to show it off a bit. Would love to see the pearly paint.
     
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  20. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    Awesome! Congrats, Jim! My wife and I are incredibly jealous lol. We would be very happy (and lucky) to get ours by December!

    I’m glad to hear everything is going great so far! Of course I never had any doubts that it would be an absolute blast to drive.

    Once you’ve had time to break it in and get to know the car, think you’ll have a chance to give us a long run-through of its features and performance? I would like to know how well the phone as key works over time, and how you feel about the touchscreen controls. :)

    Please, put to rest our two major fears haha.
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2018
  21. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

    Congrats on the new baby! Is it a boy or a girl? :D

    Don't forget to provide him or her a clean, efficient means of transportation.

    [​IMG]
    http://tesla.radioflyer.com/build.html

    And yes, right now we're all still limited by the lack of options. As much as I would like own a long range Model 3 with premium seats and a panoramic roof... I don't want to *pay* for the extra stuff I don't need and can't comfortably afford.

    So, hoping the SR version comes very soon!
     
  22. TeslaInvestors

    TeslaInvestors Active Member

  23. WadeTyhon

    WadeTyhon Well-Known Member

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