Model 3 production ramping up

You have some valid points but you're missing three aspects, AWD, Performance version and leasing...With AWD, some may want it as its assumed it would slightly increase the range, some may want it for the performance aspect, others for weather and others (aka every Subaru owner I know) simply just love AWD...Musk said AWD would be under under $5K so even if that turns out to be $4990, I would imagine overwhelming majority who want the long range battery would prefer AWD over the luxury package...Next we have those who care less about RWD vs AWD and simply want performance, Musk said the 3 would have Ludicrous...Lastly it was reported right here that 80% of EV owners lease, although a small sampling survey conducted by IEV suggested that number to be far less for Tesla owners...Even if that's 50%, that's still HALF...You cannot lease a Model 3 yet through Tesla's lender so many just prefer to wait until they see what the lease rates are...

On the profitability side, for the Model 3, like the non-P 100D vs P100D, same battery but huge price different, a P-Model 3 will be the most profitable model 3...You have Chevy in your name, so I'll factor in Chevy's most profitable vehicle the Silverado...The top trim High Country Silverado is nearly double the MSRP of the base Silverado; right now if I go to Chevy's website it says $96XX off a top trim LTZ Silverado so clearly there's a healthy profit margin there...All major automakers do this, analysts estimate a 20-25% margin on bases on 50% margin on higher trims & options...I've long argued that's how the Bolt and Volt could improve their profitability if they offered a "High Country" or higher trim Volt/Bolt...Since there is a Chevy Silverado High Country instead of GM offering a Cadillac full size pickup truck, we can't say GM tried that with the ELR...Nearly all Chevy vehicles offer a sunroof package, to add one to the Cruze it's $1995, why can't the Bolt/Volt offer that or power-seats as an option? Why doesn't Chevy add a second motor to the Bolt EV for as a $5000 option which would boost profits and appeal to those wanting AWD?

 

Tesla has a Feb 7th earnings call, I haven't researched but believe we won't hear a Jan '18 and Feb 1-6/7th breakdown, we'll just hear Jan 1st-Feb 6/7th, anyone care to guess the number of 2018 deliveries he'll announce on Feb 7th?

 

Hey now we know what would Jesus drive since we have GOD here giving us information. LOL

 

I doubt Musk/Tesla will even give a January delivery number, just a production rate (best run rate achieved in a week) and the outlook for 2500 per week and 5000 per week.

If we are lucky they might say something like January deliveries were more than double December or something like that. I don’t expect exact numbers on deliveries until April 1st or 2nd.

 

Inside EVs seems to get good numbers. I'll watch for their end of the month counts. I'm sure Tesla blows every automaker in the world away when you add model S3X and soon Y and Semi ,Roadster II and Pickup and more.

 

Yeah they basically never provide exact numbers in the middle of the quarter. If deliveries are just a slight uptick from December.

But if the numbers are significantly higher they will probably say something. Gotta keep the good news coming.

Yep, historically Inside EVs has always been very good at estimating Tesla numbers. Much better than other sites like cleantechnica. Their numbers are basically just an average for the quarter.

 

Inside EV has posted the Tesla numbers for the Model 3 for January. A disappointing 1875 Model 3s. EV has been accurate with Tesla US sales previously since they check the registration numbers which are readily available in the U.S. Where EV struggles is on Tesla worldwide sales. However, since the Model 3 won't be sold internationally until the 2nd half of 2018 that 1875 should be close to accurate for January. If we do the trend line from EV reports we get:
Nov 2017 345 cars,
Dec 2017 1060 cars, 307% growth
Jan 2018 1875 cars, 176% growth
On a S curve while unit growth is rising early on the curve, % growth each month is dropping. Thus if Tesla follows a typical S curve the next few months should have a % of growth that slowly drops from previous months. Feb 2018 3000 cars (160% growth), and March 2018 4500 cars (150% growth). That growth curve will put Tesla far, far short of the promised 2500 per week in March. To get to their 2500/week goal Tesla would need to be making 10,000 cars in March. Tesla appears heading for another production miss. To get to 10,000 in March, January deliveries should have come in much, much higher. A reasonable S curve that gets to 10,000 in March would have January came in at 3000 (tripling Dec), then Feb at 6000 (doubling), then March at 10,000 (not quite doubling). Growth rates slow as you get to larger volumes as it's easier to make improvements early on at lower volumes. Need some another couple of months of data to more accurately project, but these still early numbers are starting to indicate that Tesla will be fortunate to produce 30,000 vehicles in the 1st half of 2018.

 

Great analysis.

I would warn that the guidance from Tesla is on production per week, not average production per week. I know it sounds like the same thing, but basically there are days/weeks during ramp that they produce nothing as they expand.

So 2500 per week in March may only be 6k of production for the month. And April might still not be 10k production.

I don’t think steady production will occur until all configurations are offered.

Also, I don’t think this ramp is going to fit an S curve based on what we know about the battery bottleneck. Tesla has one of 4 automated pack production lines functioning.

The other three lines seem like they were going to require hardware changes. Once one of the other lines is up production could double nearly instantly. It seems Fremont is ready, cell production is ready, just waiting on packs.

 

If we use hard numbers from previous model launches to track Model 3 production, it's tracking ahead of Model S and Model X in the same amount of time since release.


That may not be as exciting as the production ramp they were initially advertising, but it does show that Tesla is improving their ramp-up operation. It's also important to note that month 7 for both the Model S and X happened on the last month of the quarter, when Tesla tends to push out more cars; whereas month 7 for the Model 3 is the beginning of the quarter and January is historically one of the 2 or 3 slowest months for Tesla production. This indicates a likelihood that Model 3 ramp-up is going to continue accelerating.

 

We have about 50 Model 3 now at the Tesla Tempe Arizona showroom Service center. They are being checked and will then be delivered to local 1 st day order Current Tesla owners in the area. Mine is supposed to be one of them so I should get the call in the next week or 2 to pick it up. We had asked to pick it up at the factory but my friend that configured the day before me was already told his came in. He requested they let him get it at the factory so they changed his to next Tuesday and he will get it there. His RED one will go to the next person with a matching config and they will get it early.
It was only about 12 days from CONFIG to delivery for his. Others that ordered WHITE like me are also still waiting yet they did their CONFIG a few days before his. We think they are doing them in batches by COLOR???

 

12 days is pretty fast! Maybe they already had one built to his specifications ready?

I have seen recent delivery estimates that basically range from 3-5 weeks after config with a few lucky folks who had 2 weeks between config to delivery.

How exciting that yours is almost ready! Be sure to give us a full review after your first few days!

Also, let me know how you like the bluetooth/key card system. It is the part of the car that has me most concerned.

I HATE bluetooth. Keyboards, headsets, speakers... it is always laggy and unreliable! And the key card idea is inferior to having an actual key fob. From the moment they announced there was no key fob I was baffled.

So I’m hoping that it won’t be an issue on the car! Our Model 3 will be replacing my wife’s Volt, and I don’t want this to be a source of frustration for her. Let me know what you think of it after you have had the car a week or two!

 

Does the keycard connect via wifi, bluetooth, or near field communication? Those are all different technologies. My guess is that it connects via near field communication (NFC), which should be more reliable than Bluetooth

 

Ouch.

Well, as a Tesla fan I hope you're wrong; but a hope isn't the same as a belief. One certainly can't fault your reasoning, but I'm not at all sure that it's mathematically valid to project an S-curve based on only two data points.

I thank you for taking the time and effort to do this analysis, whether or not it turns out to be correct.
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I think you have misinterpreted what you've read. Only one of four "modules", or sections, of the battery pack production line was not functioning. Now that this problem has been at least ameliorated, and hopefully soon it will be completely solved, there shouldn't be any bottleneck there any longer.

And it will be quite remarkable if the ramp-up of Model 3 production does not follow an S-curve. To be sure, it won't follow that with exact mathematical precision; real-world results rarely follow theory exactly. But it should fit an S-curve much better than any other type of straight line or regular curve. Given the realities of mass production and parts being delivered from suppliers, it's hard to see how the growth of production could follow, in broad outline, anything other than an S-curve.

The real question is just how sharply that S-curve will curve up during the acceleration phase, and how sharply it will taper off during the deceleration phase. So far, the acceleration has been disappointingly slow. But as Chinawatcher said, we really do need a couple more months of data to get a good idea of what that curve is going to look like.
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There's a recall on the model 3 for Power Conversion System. Will this cause a delay for February?

 

The phone connects by bluetooth. Issues with losing connection are already popping up on Tesla Motors Club. As are issues with the car unlocking itself as you walk around your house.

The card is NFC and you have to hold it up to the area where the side view cameras are in order to unlock. Far less convenient than a keyfob.

 

I've already seen a lot of complaints about the keycard as a substitute for a fob. Looks like Tesla needs to at least offer a fob as an option. But then, I thought Tesla would wind up offering a HUD as an option for the TM3, and so far at least there has been no hint they're going to do that.
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It's been 2 weeks since the last batch to configure. There's no invite going out.

One thing is clear, Tesla needs to offer lease option when non owners start to configure.